By Ovi
The focus of this post is an overview of World oil production along with a more detailed review of the top 11 Non-OPEC oil producing countries. OPEC production is covered in a separate post.
Below are a number of Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production charts, usually shortened to “oil”, for the oil producing countries. The charts are created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and are updated to June 2025. This is the latest and most detailed/complete World oil production information available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway, Mexico, Argentina and China is used to provide a short term outlook.
The World’s June oil production increased by 895 kb/d to 84,184 kb/d, green graph. Last month’s projection for June was 84,117 kb/d, short by 67 kb/d.
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2026. It uses the October 2025 STEO report along with the International Energy Statistics to make the projection. Production in July is projected to increase by 553 kb/d to 84,737 kb/d, if correct, a new World Peak Oil. The 12 month CMA plotted at July 2026 is 85,314 kb/d.
For December 2026, production is projected to be 85,538 b/d, an upward revision of 853 kb/d from last month. Also September 2025 production is projected to be close to 86,875 kb/d another new high. Will September 2025 be the World’s New Peak Oil date?
What are the chances that the July increase of 553 kb/d will push World oil production to a new Peak Oil? Below are the July increases that I have obtained from the oil reporting agencies of the countries shown. They are typically correct to ± 5 kb/d. The OPEC + increase came from the September MOMR. Not included is the 109 kb/d US July increase. With a potential 873 kb/d increase in July production, it may exceed November 2018.
June’s World oil output without the US increased by 809 kb/d to 70,651 kb/d. July’s production is expected to increase by 445 kb/d to 71,096 kb/d.
The STEO is forecasting that December 2026 crude output will be 72,024 kb/d, 528 kb/d higher than projected last month. Production will peak in September at 73,613 kb/d.
World oil production W/O the U.S. from July 2025 to December 2026 is forecast to increase by a total of 928 kb/d.
A Different Perspective on World Oil Production
June’s Big 3 oil production increased by 748 kb/d to 33,283 kb/d. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia contributed 783 kb/d to the increase. Russia dropped 35 kb/d. OPEC started increasing production in April 2025 and will continue doing so up to December 2026 so the increase should continue.
Production in the Remaining countries has been slowly increasing since the September 2020 low of 42,970 kb/d to December 2023. Production in June 2025 rose by 148 kb/d to 50,901 kb/d.
Countries Expected to Grow Oil Production
This chart was first posted a number of months back and shows the combined oil production from five Non-OPEC countries, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S., whose oil production is expected to grow. These five countries are often cited by OPEC and the IEA for being capable of meeting the increasing World oil demand for next year. For these five countries, production from April 2020 to August 2024 rose at an average rate of 1,199 kb/d/year as shown by the orange OLS line.
To show the impact of US growth over the past 5 years, U.S. production was removed from the five countries and that graph is shown in red. The production growth slope for the remaining four countries has been reduced by 687 kb/d/yr to 512 kb/d/yr.
June production has been added to the five growers chart, up by 473 kb/d to 23,437 kb/d. For the Five growers W/O U.S., June production rose to 9,857 kb/d, up 340 kb/d from April.
The OLS lines have not been updated and will not be updated going forward unless additional production data provides a strong indication that production is rising/changing significantly. However looking out to July, production from Brazil will rise by 200 kb/d (See Brazil chart below). Combining this with an expected rebound from Canada and rising production from Argentina, new highs from these five can be expected.
World Oil Countries Ranked by Production
Above are listed the World’s 13th largest oil producing countries. In June 2025 these 13 countries produced 79.1% of the World’s oil. On a MoM basis, production increased by 1,089 kb/d in these 13 countries while on a YOY basis production rose by 2,258 kb/d.
June Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts
June’s Non-OPEC oil production increased by 468 kb/d to 53,839 kb/d. July is expected to add an additional 747 kb/d to 54,586 kb/d.
Using data from the October 2025 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period June 2025 to December 2026. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 55,613 kb/d in December 2026.
From July 2025 to December 2026, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,027 kb/d.
June’s Non-OPEC W/O US oil production increased by 381 kb/d to 40,306 kb/d. July’s production is projected to add 639 kb/d to 40,945 kb/d.
From July 2025 to December 2026, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the U.S. is expected to increase by 1,154 to 42,099 kb/d..
Non-OPEC Oil Countries Ranked by Production
Listed above are the World’s 11 largest Non-OPEC producers. The original criteria for inclusion in the table was that all of the countries produced more than 1,000 kb/d. Oman has recently fallen below 1,000 kb/d while Angola had a big drop in June.
June’s MoM production increased by 595 kb/d to 45,174 kb/d for these eleven Non-OPEC countries while as a whole the Non-OPEC countries saw a yearly production increase of 1,258 kb/d to 53,839 kb/d.
In June 2025, these 11 countries produced 83.5% of all Non-OPEC oil.
Non-OPEC Country’s Oil Production Charts
Angola’s June production dropped 100 kb/d to 905 kb/d. Angola’s production has been dropping slowly since January 2024 but June had a big drop to 905 kb/d. While the EIA is reporting June production was below 1,000 kb/d, this Article claims July was the first month in which production dropped below 1,000 kb/d.
“Angola’s oil production for July was 30,961,452 barrels, corresponding to a daily average of 998,757 barrels of oil (BOPD) against a forecast 1,073,542 BOPD,” reads the website of the National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency, the Angolan regulator of this sector.
The EIA reported that Brazil’s June production increased by 78 kb/d to 3,757 kb/d.
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that production increased by 199 kb/d in July to 3,956 kb/d, a new high, and then dropped 65 kb/d in August. The pre-salt graph tracks Brazil’s trend in the blue graph. Pre-salt production increased by 167 kb/d in July to 3,148 kb/d, also a new high.
The September OPEC report states July crude production was driven by strong production from recently started projects.
Canada’s production increased by 424 kb/d in June to 4,848 kb/d. The production rise in June was related to the end of maintenance. A projection has been made for July production based on preliminary production from the Canada Energy Regulator. July production could reach a new high of 5,115 kb/d.
According to this Article, the Canadian oil and gas industry is anticipating modest production growth in 2026.
“About 88pc of oil and gas producers expect to grow production in the next 12 months, up from 79pc saying so in the bank’s previous survey released in April. Gas producers are expecting growth of about 6.3pc while oil producers see about 4.6pc growth, with that divergence between commodities further amplified in company’s capital spending plans. Gas weighted producers plan to increase capital expenditures by 5.2pc in 2026, compared with a 0.4pc decline seen among oil weighted producers.“
According to this magazine Article, In-Situ oil production is outpacing mining. Also another article on oil exports to countries other than the US are slowing.
The EIA reported China’s June oil output rose by 80 kb/d to 4,430 kb/d.
The China National Bureau of Statistics reported July production dropped to 4,268 kb/d and then rose to 4,299 kb/d in August..
On a YoY basis, China’s June production increased by 180 kb/d from 4,250 kb/d.
According to the EIA, Kazakhstan’s June oil output increased by 125 kb/d to 2,146 kb/d.
Kazakhstan’s recent pre-salt crude oil production, as reported by Argus, was added to the chart. In October 2024 pre-salt crude production dropped by 120 kb/d to a low 1,340 kb/d. Since then production to June 2025 has risen by 464 kb/d. The production ramp up starting in January 2025 is due to a New Field coming online. Note this is crude production whereas the EIA’s numbers are C + C. S & P Global Platts reports that July production was essentially flat.
According to the EIA, Mexico’s June output dropped by 6 kb/d to 1,719 kb/d.
In June 2024, Pemex issued a new and modified oil production report for Heavy, Light and Extra Light oil. It is shown in blue in the chart and it appears that Mexico is not reporting condensate production when compared to the EIA report.
In earlier EIA reports, they would add close to 55 kb/d of condensate to the Pemex’s “Total Liquids” report. More recently, the EIA has been adding 90 kb/d of condensate to Mexican production. For July and August production, 90 kb/d have been added to estimate Mexico’s July and August C + C production, red markers. July production is estimated to be close to 1,738 kb/d while August dropped to 1,735. Note that Mexico’s production for the last five months has stopped dropping and has stabilized around 1,650 kb/d according to Pemex.
The EIA reported Norway’s June’s production dropped by 110 kb/d to 1,686 kb/d.
Separately, the Norway Petroleum Directorate (NPD) reported that July’s production rose by 280 kb/d to 1,966, a post pandemic new high, red markers. August production dropped to 1,937 kb/d.
The Norway Petroleum Directorship reported that August’s oil production was 7.1 % above forecast.
According to the July OPEC MOMR: “Production at the Johan Castberg FPSO, the main driver of crude oil production growth this year, reached peak capacity of 220 tb/d in late June, according to operator Equinor. This ramp-up took less than three months from project start-up.”
Oman’s production rose very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in November 2022. According to the EIA, June’s output rose by 6 kb/d to 997 kb/d and appears to be stabilizing in the 980 kb/d to 1,000 kb/d range.
The EIA had been reporting flat output of 1,322 kb/d for Qatar since early 2022. However the EIA revised down all of the previous production data up to April 2024. Qatar’s June output was again reported to be 1,322 kb/d.
The EIA reported Russia’s June 2025 C + C production decreased by 35 kb/d to 9,783 kb/d and was up 19 kb/d from June 2024.
Ukraine has bombed Russian refineries sporadically over the past few years. However beginning around mid year 2025, the intensity of refinery attacks increased and more specifically the drones have gone after the distillation towers. This has resulted in gasoline shortages in Russia. Also they have attacked export terminals and pipelines. it is not clear when the effects of these attacks will show up in declining crude oil production. Note the EIA is showing dropping production in May and June which is opposite to the Argus data.
Using data from Argus Media reports, Russian crude production is shown in the blue graph. For June 2025, Argus reported Russian crude production was 9,020 kb/d. Adding 8% to Argus’ June crude production provides a C + C production estimate of 9,742 kb/d for Russia, which is a proxy for the Pre-War Russian Ministry estimate, red markers. Argus has stopped reporting World oil production. I will check if another source can be used as a cross check on trends rather than specific production.
According to this Article, Russia’s Crude Output was below OPEC+ target in August.
The nation pumped 9.175 million barrels a day last month, according to people who saw the data and asked for anonymity as the information isn’t public. That’s an increase from July, but about 84,000 barrels a day below the country’s quota for August including compensation cuts, Bloomberg calculations show.
OPEC published an updated compensation schedule on Monday, with Russia pledging to reduce its output in August by 85,000 barrels a day below its target of 9.344 million barrels a day. That brings required production to 9.259 million barrels a day. This required production is 239 kb/d higher than June 2025 production of 9,020 kb/d.
This US production chart up to July 2025 is the same as the one published last week in the US update post. However the projected portions of the two production graphs have been updated using the October 2025 STEO.
U.S. August projected production has been revised up by close to 147 kb/d to 13,678 kb/d.
Production in December 2026 is expected to be 13,514 kb/d, 314 kb/d higher than shown in last week’s US update. Production peaks in September 2025 and then begins a slow decline. Note production in the Onshore L48 drops steadily after July 2025.
76 responses to “June World and Non-OPEC Oil Production Rise”
“A Guy Walks Into A Reactor Shop With 34 Tons of Plutonium…”
https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/10/a-guy-walks-into-a-reactor-shop-with-34-tons-of-plutonium
Nice article. Personally, I think continued temp storage is a better idea than disposal geologically or chemically. Even if it is inconvenient now, eventually we find a use for it. But it’s not the end of the world if we do dispose of it. We know how to make more.
Hubbert was concerned about uranium supplies for fission and advocated breeder reactors. But it turns out in retrospect, we haven’t needed that. Still plenty of accessible uranium ore.
Rig Report for the Week Ending October 10
The rig count drop that started in early April when 450 rigs were operating and rebounded over the past few weeks dropped by 1 this week.
– US Hz oil rigs dropped by 1 to 373, down 77 since April 2025 when it was 450. The rig count is down 17% since April.
– New Mexico Permian rose by 8 to 91 while Texas dropped 9 rigs to 180. Why the drop in Texas. and rise in NM?
– Texas Permian dropped by 7 to 140. Midland rose by 1 to 20 while Martin was unchanged at 17. Upton, Reeves and Culberson counties were down by 2 rigs each to 15, 19 and 4 respectively. Glasscock was down by 1.
– In New Mexico both Eddy and Lea were up by 4 to 41 and 50 respectively. Clearly something has changed for the better in the NM Permian.
– Eagle Ford dropped 1 to 32
– NG Hz rigs rose by 3 to 107.
A Rig
Ovi,
Based on what Mr. Shellman has been reporting, they may be running short on space for new wells in the Midland and the larger operators there (XOM and FANG, I think) may be reducing new wells and rigs. Perhaps in the Delaware Basin, especially the New Mexico part where there are smaller operators, they may just keep drilling to pay the bills, though it would seem at these low prices they would just be digging a deeper hole for themselves (more debt.)
As of 2023 the well quality was better in New Mexico (higher EUR) compared to Texas.
See https://public.tableau.com/shared/4XHBPT9DH?:toolbar=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
where I compare 2020-2023 wells in NM Permian vs TX Permian. Also link below has chart snippet.
See also
https://www.oilystuff.com/group/engineering-and-geological-discussions/discussion/9507f8da-85c9-4e66-88bf-a07e4af890c7
NM v TX permian
Dennis
Maybe that’s the answer. Better rock.
Ovi,
Also see recent post by Mr. Shellman, I just added link to my previous comment, seems there is very limited tier 1 drilling inventory in Midland Basin, I am also fairly sure that the TX side of the Delaware Basin is not as good as the NM side. The NM wells are on average 16% better in the Delaware Basin than those in TX Delaware Basin (2020-2023 wells) 287 kb vs 246 kb at 24 months.
https://public.tableau.com/shared/DBPPCMFWY?:toolbar=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
delawar NM v TX
Frac Spread Report for the Week Ending October 10
The frac spread count dropped by 4 to 175. From one year ago, it is down by 66 and down by 40 spreads since March 28.
A Frac
Thanks, OVI
What do JODI data say?
Matt
No Russian data after 2023.
Great work as always OVI and DC!!!
I’m pulling this forward because could (might?) have earth shattering peak oil implications…
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Maduro-Offered-Venezuelas-Oil-to-Trump-to-Avoid-Conflict-with-US.html
Maduro (Venezuela) offers natural resources (oil and gold) to Trump to avoid military attack.
I’ve always wondered what could become of Venezuela as an oil producer if the US Oil patch was unleashed on the country
Andre
Thanks. Much appreciated.
I am not sure what the US oil patch could do in Venezuela. Venezuela’s oil is very heavy/viscous and needs some assistance to flow. They use the SAGD process or some variation of that to extract the oil. So it really becomes a question of the number of wells you bring on line and how low one can get the Steam/Oil ratio (SOR). Once the oil is pumped to the surface, it has to be diluted with a dilbit to prevent it from thickening too much while being transported. Last I heard, Iran was supplying the diluent to Venezuela.
In Canada, Cenovus is the leader with the lowest SOR. Besides using steam, Solvent assisted SAGD is now being used to reduce the SOR. Initially the solvent was butane. Not sure where the SAGD technology is now. Attached is an article listing the progress in SAGD oil production.
The latest advance is to use mechanical lift.
Advancements in mechanical lift technology, specifically electric submersible pumps, that can handle high emulsion volumes at bottom-hole temperatures in excess of 250°C. This has allowed operators to lower the steam chamber pressures, which improves steaming efficiency, and reduces interference with thief zones.
https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/news/2024/11/21/thermal-in-situ-bitumen-extraction-explained
Chevron was in there and interestingly Trump recently forced them to leave.
Not sure what he is thinking there.
I remember the Russians at one point were over there trying to develop their reserves, and looks like they gave up trying,
Don’t understand the problems or hurdles.
Thanks for the great work Ovi. Interesting times.
Schinzy
Thanks. Much appreciated.
I didn’t think we would get here because this is not a demand related upcoming peak. Not clear how much it is related to Trump’s request to SA lower the price of crude, potential for stranded oil assets and other OPEC members not complying. Actually it seems that these three factors are happening at almost the same time.
Ron
How are your doomer predictions going?
Do you regret being so condescending to those who have turned out to be correct. I.E. know more than you.
https://peakoilbarrel.com/oil-production-is-going-to-drop/
Iver,
Remind us of your forecast for future oil output. Nony never makes any prediction, he just points out others who have been mistaken. The future is unknown, hindsight is 20/20.
Iver
Maybe you should be thanking Ron for the foresight he had in launching POB after the TOD shut and all of the good discussion we have had here.
Don’t forget, this is not a demand related upcoming peak. It is really an upcoming phony peak.
Ovi
What do you mean by a phoney peak?
Dennis
I have thought for some time global total liquids would peak at around 85 to 88 mb/d. I have also said 2018 would be beaten and I said that over 2 years ago.
Iver
It is phony peak in the sense that it is not a demand driven peak. It is a response by SA to T to drop the price of oil. Supply is exceedingly demand by 1,500 kb/d to 2,000 kb/d.
84737 / 84593 = 1.00170226851
AKA 1
Well within the margin of error I guess.
Watching American TV news with its obsession with “breaking news” at the expense of figuring out what’s going on in the world has rotted the minds of generations of otherwise reasonable people.
Sadly, the internet is making things worse. That and the short term adrenaline rush of point scoring and outrage are the main reasons why social media algorithms find it so easy to manipulate people.
I wouldn’t pay any attention to any numbers on the charts published here past the first to significant digits. It’s just noise.
Iver,
So let’s take 86.5 Mb/d as your best guess with a 70% CI of 85 to 88 Mb/d for World C plus C centered 12 month average peak. What is your best guess and 70% CI for what year the peak will occur? CI=confidence interval so a 70% CI means your probability estimate would be a 7 in 10 chance for peak to be 85 to 88 Mb/d. If your CI is lower (maybe 50%) just let us know.
Alimbiquated
The more critical number is September, 86,875 kb/d. Its ratio is 1.027. It has a higher probability of being achieved. Then we will have to wait for revisions for a few years to see where it finally ends up.
What continues to surprise me is how well the Russian numbers are holding up. Not sure if we can believe them.
D C
Asking what year I think peak will occur.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one had to consider demand increase, trying to figure out how electric vehicles would impact demand. Then Covid made assessments of aviation difficult and Trumps tariffs are making assessments of shipping increases difficult to guess.
What will happen in Iran, Russia, Venezuela regarding sanctions?
Putting all that aside I think global geological peak would be closer to 88mb/d around 2030.
However in the real world, sanctions and particularly the Russian / Ukrainian war will probably cause a peak to be lower and earlier.
If Ukraine destroys enough Russian export and refining infrastructure then peak will probably be next year at around 85mb/d. At a 12 mma.
Decline rates with all these elements at plays is anyone’s guess.
Iver,
I agree it is very difficult to predict the future, so difficult you are unwilling to even venture a guess at least in the timing. So far we have 85 to 88 Mbpd between 2025 and 2050 or maybe 2100? Try a guess, the window can be wide if you are timid. Or is your best guess 88 Mbpd in 2030? Note that sounds reasonable. My best guess would be 85 Mbpd in 2028, but your guess if I understand correctly probably has a similar chance of being correct, my guess would be a 50% probability it will fall in that range of 2028 to 2030 at a peak of 85 to 88 Mbpd for World C plus C.
Ovi —
The margin of error for predictions is higher than for current reports, and the farther in the future the bigger the margin of error.
D C
Can you read English?
Obviously not very well.
“88mb/d around 2030” – Iver
WRONG! lol
Iver,
Perhaps it is the writing rather than the reading.
You give many caveats about why your guess may be wrong, seems 2026 to 2030 is your range for dates and 85 to 88 for C+C range for World peak output. No best guess is mentioned, the middle of your ranges would be 86.5 Mbpd in 2028.
Looks like the Nov 2018 monthly world record is holding but under danger. Could break next month.
Poor Ron. Just like his 2015 peak call.
Nony
I will say the same to you as I said to Iver.
Maybe you should be thanking Ron for the foresight he had in launching POB after the TOD shut and all of the good discussion we have had here.
Nony,
Remind us of your prediction. Or are you a coward?
Crude is in the 50s now. I don’t think the shalebois will like that. Need to start a war or something.
Causes are the China tarrif threats creating demand worries. Along with the Hamas peace deal reducing Middle East risk premium.
Time to fill up my convertible and go for a joy ride. 😊
Dec 2031 WTI futures contract last trade at $62.85/b. March 2026 contract at $57.72/b.
Great post Ovi. Thank you.
Dennis
Thanks. Much appreciated
I really did not believe we would get here because of slowing demand and a possible big drop in Russian production. Surprised it hasn’t shown up yet.
I think we need to find a qualifier for this new peak when it happens. Right now I would categorize it as an Artificial Peak Oil.
I guess the next question will be, Is this the Ultimate Peak Oil? It seems to line up to some extent with your Shock model.
I wish someone could provide some insight to the movement of those 8 oil rigs from Tx to NM.
Hi Ovi,
It might be because the wells in NM are more productive and there may also be more tier 1 and tier 2 location available in NM vs TX.
It will take something like 3-5 straight years of high oil prices (say, over 90 at current dollar levels) to help us see if Ultimate Peak has been already achieved. Unless we wait for a decade, beyond which declining production is highly unlikely to ever be reversed to new highs regardless of high demand.
There are many reasons that a peak could be seen as ‘artificial’, such as Covid recession, Russia, Iran and Venezuela sanctions, global warming abatement policies, tariffs, or failed state status in places like Libya, Nigeria or Iraq.
All of these kind of restrictions on potential global oil output may be seen as ‘artificial’, but are always going to part of the overall stew.
As I see it.
Hickory,
The relatively low oil prices for most of the past 5 years, 2022 was exceptional due to surprising invasion of Ukraine by Russia, suggests that demand growth may have slowed and potentially may decline faster than supply. We may have a peak demand scenario playing out.
If that is the case we may never see an average annual oil price above $85/b in 2020 US$ after 2024.
If that low demand scenario plays out, then I presume it will be many years (a decade plus?) to have confidence that a peak in production has been put in. Another ramification of that scenario would also be a rather slow decline in production after peak. Do you concur Dennis?
Hickory,
I agree it will take some time (5 to 10 years in my view) until we can be relatively sure that we are past peak. Though note what happened in the US, with a peak in 1970 which was surpassed in 2018, some 48 years later. I don’t think this will happen with World output, but in 2010 I thought it very unlikely the US would see a new peak and was proven incorrect 8 years later.
As to how slowly decline in oil output occurs, that will depend on demand for oil, if the demand peak scenario plays out. Potentially demand could decrease rapidly as land transport moves to electric output from batteries, potentially natural gas, nuclear, and/or wind might replace some oil use for water transport. Air transport may continue to expand, but high speed rail might replace some air transport on continents, intercontinental air travel is likely to continue to use oil, though perhaps there will be less of it in the future.
Short answer, I do not know if oil output will decline slowly or quickly.
Good time to secure contracts to refill the SPR, once the retrofit work gets completed.
Biofuel-
I bring this to the table since biofuels are part of the liquid fuel pie, and they both compete with and supplement petrol as ICE transportation fuel.
“Biofuel demand continues to grow worldwide despite being responsible for 16% more CO2 emissions globally than the fossil fuels they replace. Using just 3% of the same land for solar would produce the same amount of energy [transportation miles], new study shows.”
A few more points on this.
-Solar to replace the biofuel production could easily be put on poorer quality lands, sparing the highly productive lands for forest, food crops, or pasture.
-By 2030 the productive lands used for biofuel production are projected to be a size that would equate to being the 6th largest country in the world, just a little smaller than the size of Brazil, and well larger than Canada.
Imagine a country larger than Canada comprised of entirely lands that were highly productive of crops like corn, soy, sugar cane or palm oil, that was 100% being used for biofuel production. Grazing, row crops, timber production, or wildlife habitat are uses that would all be possible on these lands.
Some people consider biofuels to be ‘green’. I believe that is a naïve notion. I see the industry as an environmental and economic very poor choice, to be polite about it. An act of last resort desperation, as if there was no other choice to be made.
Canada is the second largest country in the world.
Hickory
From what you are saying, it would not be a good idea for the US to start producing a biodiesel from all of the soy beans that the US can’t sell to China.
The only logical reason to do so would be as a government jobs program.
The money spent on such a central planning project could create many more jobs if deployed elsewhere in the economy.
But as many have noticed over the history of civilization, political considerations often Trump rational thinking.
Russia apparently has 30% more refining capacity than it needs. Ukraine will have to continue to hit those refineries for some time before Russia has to reduce production. There will come a tipping point when each refinery hit will have a serious effect both upstream and downstream.
This point could happen around the middle of next year.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-oil-exports-western-ports-stay-close-record-high-october-sources-say-2025-10-10/
I think many of the export terminals are too far to hit but who knows, an attack by sea is possible.
China is increasing the rate of oil storage build, they are obviously taking these risks seriously.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-accelerates-oil-reserve-site-build-amid-stockpiling-drive-2025-10-07/
Russia is a big place so not all refineries provide oil to all regions. Ukraine has been targeting refineries near Ukraine, because they are easier to hit, so regional shortages should come sooner. I think that is happening already in Crimea.
Academic interest .
”I’m going to make another attempt on #oil to explain why I think it’s going to end up with a $40 handle in the best case, with a $20 handle in the cards (black swan). It has nothing to do with the fundamentals of the trade, and everything to do with prior precedent and existing market signals. ”
https://x.com/LibertyOffense/status/1976683139146686756
HIH:
Thanks for posting this. I remember reading the book, “The Coming Bad Times,” in 1979. It shook me up so badly that I put everything I had (not much) in gold. In 1980 gold went up to $850 and oil was selling for $35/barrel. I felt like a genius. By 1982, gold had fallen to $350 and oil was still about where it had been (ratio of 12:1). To give one an idea of “normal,” the traditional ratio (after the gold standard was abolished by Richard Nixon) used to be 10-15: 1. By today’s standards that temporary 1982 ratio of 25:1 seems paltry. Today, I should emphasize, one ounce of gold will buy you SIXTY-EIGHT (68) barrels of oil! I am elaborating this only to point out that by comparison to historical wide spreads portending a financial event or geopolitical sea change, where we are today is ENORMOUS—way beyond any other spread. That is, if you don’t count that one day in 2020 when the price of oil went to a buck, at which point the ratio was 2,000:1.
Today’s price ratio distortion could be nothing more than the collision of two forces: 1) the world (including central governments) sees inflation and uncertainty everywhere, and 2) the shale basins have produced hundreds of thousands of wells at minimal profit at a breakneck rate (venting and flaring thousands of wells beyond the period outlined in the rule book) that only the criminally insane would do. But even if that’s the case, it’s likely—based on history—that the ratio will return to its traditional range.
To put this into granular perspective (assuming a high ratio of 25:1), if the price of gold remains at fever pitch, oil should rise to $160. If the price of gold halves, falling back to its former post-pandemic level of $2,000, then oil should level out at about $80. This ratio has taken some interesting turns throughout history, but the author is correct, it always comes back to earth.
There’s always a caveat. This one is that the Chinese have been hoarding gold voraciously and are buying oil using the digital yuan backed by gold. Most of the world still uses the Petrodollar. Still, this one geopolitical move could substantially alter the traditional gold:oil price ratio.
Oil the lifeline of the global economy. Gold is … a collectors item. Your ratio basically comes down to random correlation.
I also don’t believe we will see sustained high oil prices in the future simply because we already tether on the brink of no economic growth globally. Simply look at the growth of debt *everywhere*. Raise the price of oil in any meaningful way and there is recession or even depression. Which lowers the demand and so on and so on. This is nothing new. Read here:
As We Exhaust Our Oil, It Will Get Cheaper But Less Affordable
https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2020/12/03/as-we-exhaust-our-oil-it-will-get-cheaper-but-less-affordable/
Florian,
Global real GDP has been growing at 3% per year on average for decades.
Debt has risen because developing nations have gained access to credit markets.
”Yes there is class warfare and it’s my class, the rich class that’s winning”
—Warren Buffet
Rare insight
Russian August Oil Production
MOSCOW, Oct 8 (Reuters) – Russia has been gradually raising its oil production and was close last month to meeting the output quota agreed by the OPEC+ group of leading oil producers, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported.
According to OPEC, Russian oil production increased in August to 9.173 million barrels per day, up 50,000 bpd from July.
Russia’s OPEC+ production quota stood at 9.415 million bpd in September. No last-month production data has been available.
Difficult to understand with all of the bombing how production is rising. Is it true or typical Russian disinformation to tell Ukraine and the rest of the world that Ukrainian bombing is ineffective?
””The main problem with our hydrocarbon exports before the war was the lack of a complete cycle (from the well to delivery to the final partner). The main export of our oil and fuel (about 70%) is traditionally carried out by sea, on tankers. This was the main weak point of our oil industry. We talked about this for years at all levels, everyone nodded thoughtfully and did nothing. Why bother when there are excellent Greek tankers, that is, a ready-made solution at a convenient price? But then the worst happened. The tankers disappeared, and instantly, and at an accelerated pace, we expanded our fleet. At the start of the sanctions in 2022, we had 17 tankers. In the second quarter of 2023, the tanker fleet increased by 75. In December 2023, another 10 were added. Simultaneously, a tanker fleet for the export of gasoline and diesel emerged. At the end As of 2024, the Russian tanker fleet was estimated at 410 units, mainly of the Aframax class (i.e., large tankers). By the second half of 2025, the number of tankers had already exceeded 500.
But that’s not all. Our tankers, called the “Freedom Fleet” (the “Shadow Fleet” in the West), began transporting not only Russian oil, but also Iranian and Venezuelan oil. We blocked up to 35% of these countries’ maritime exports. Imagine, the stupid West wanted to block our maritime oil trade, but we not only reprimanded them, but simultaneously lifted the sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, which these countries had suffered for decades. What a blow to the Russian economy! ”
https://maratkhairullin.substack.com/p/smart-gas-station-or-how-russia-became
D C has claimed Insaid peak oil could be 2050.
How pathetic to tell lies to try and win an argument.
Dennis
You just make yourself look stupid.
Iver,
My apologies,
Seems if one ignores your many caveats it is roughly 2026 to 2030, your range seems reasonable, if I have it right.
Iver,
Also note the question mark in my comment, that indicates a question rather than a statement.
167 MILLION ACRES OF FEDERAL LANDS AUCTIONED OFF FOR COAL:
–sorry about the Caps++++
“The Trump administration hosted a coal lease sale in Montana auctioning off 167 million tons of coal on federal lands.”
Company bids less than a penny per ton in biggest US coal sale in over a decade
BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — A Navajo tribe-owned company bid $186,000 to lease 167 million tons of coal on federal lands in southeastern Montana on Monday in the biggest U.S. coal sale in more than a decade.
The offer from the Navajo Transitional Energy Co. (NTEC) equates to one-tenth of a penny per ton, underscoring coal’s diminished value even as President Donald Trump pushes to mine and burn more of the heavily polluting fuel.
Federal officials did not immediately say if they would accept the offer. It was the only bid received. Two NTEC representatives attended the sale at the Bureau of Land Management local office in Billings, Montana. They declined to comment after it was over.
This stuff is in BIG demand
https://www.nsnews.com/environment-news/company-bids-less-than-a-penny-per-ton-in-biggest-us-coal-sale-in-over-a-decade-11311543
I don’t understand these mean-spirited comments on this blog. The thing was put together by Ron, and yet some people delight in deriding his predictions. To me he has always been a gentleman and I take it as an honor that he has allowed me to voice my thoughts here. Then Dennis weighed in more and more, and he received the same shabby treatment. Finally Ovi, a very nice fellow, began adding more and more. I get it that it’s in the spirit of play to sometimes poke fun at another, but many of these comments go beyond the pale. I’m not the blog police. But very frequently the ones making demeaning comments are the same people who have very little constructive to say . . . about anything. I think it’s hiding behind all these stupid fake names that brings out the worst in people. Come on out and tell people what your name is, where you’re from, and why you feel the way you do. That’s the only way to have civil discourse that is understandable and also conducive to helpful conversation around the globe. I totally understand a divergent thought pattern from mine if you’re from Russian, or Poland, or even from Maine. Every remark ever made to me in good faith, having to do with an opposing viewpoint, has enlarged the scope of my reasoning. Please stop this cowardly bullying; you’re ruining the blog.
Gerry
When I said two years ago that I was certain that the 2018 peak would be exceeded. Ron said I was *in delusional.
Is that what you call gentlemanly conduct?
If you had really bothered to read how Dennis replies to other people besides yourself you would realise how condescending he is. Especially on economics where he thinks he is so fantastic. Even though he really does not understand the complex issues at play. That is why he never replies TO HHH.
Dennis can’t grasp the issues talked about. Supply and demand is his limit.
Dennis does graphs and nothing going on in the real world must impinge on them. Any complex random variables he just dismisses because they would spoil his pretty little simplistic graphs.
Why do you think the best commentators, after debating with DC for some time just give up. They realise there is no possibility of having a truly elevated and exploratory discussion with such a closed minded person.
Ovi posts are excellent.
Iver,
Find another blog.
Gerry, Thank you for bringing this up. I agree with most of what you have said, though I prefer to use a pseudonym for reason’s of privacy on this blog. Sadly, this blog attracts certain types who consider that they are above us mortals who have actually worked in the business, most of my 47 years of employment being in the refining and petchem side. It costs nothing to be polite and civil, the occasional mild jibe being acceptable but the endless smart ass comments are driving people away, me included. We all have our strength and weaknesses and by sharing our experiences we can all learns something. Not all readers are experts, and not all “experts” have skin in the game. I do not mind being challenged and I do not mind providing more detailed explanations, but what sticks in my craw are the internet experts that think they know everything and yet know very little. Thank goodness Dennis closed down the non-petroleum blog- it is a pity it lasted for so long. I respect the work of Ovi and Dennis. I do not always agree with their conclusions but at least they both try hard to explain their findings, even though I personally do not think that they are a little more than a best guess, which Dennis readily concedes. But that is the case with all predictions. They are only valid for a point in time and other unknown factors may come into play and scuttle the prediction. Shale oil being a classic example. One motormouth on this blog takes great delight in ridiculing those who posted on The Oil Drum. I posted on the blog and wrote leaders. I did not try and predict a date of Peak Oil. I know only that Peak Oil with arrive. I just don’t know when, and when it does we will see it from the rear view mirror. My preferred metric is to measure C&C rather than C&C + NGL’s in which case we might well have reached Peak Oil.
Thanks Gerry and Carnot,
You both are respectful and that is appreciated. Ovi and I do the best we can with the limited information available to us. I appreciate alternative perspectives and try to learn from them, life would not be very interesting if everyone always agreed. Some of the difference in perspective comes down to differing viewpoints on climate change and its relative importance, I try not to dwell on that too much as views are pretty much fixed.
Carnot
I note that you mentioned that you prefer to use a pseudonym. I have no issue with that. I want to clarify that my real name is Ovi and it is short for Ovidio. I raise this because I just looked up Ovi and found out it is short for “Operating a vehicle while impaired”. Learn something new every day.
I along with Dennis do appreciate constructive discussion. Maybe over the next six months we will kill two birds with one stone as both US and World oil production peak at the same time.
Sort of oil related.
RECORD LEAP IN CO2 FUELS FEARS OF ACCELERATING GLOBAL HEATING
“The global average concentration of the gas surged by 3.5 parts per million to 424ppm in 2024, the largest increase since modern measurements started in 1957, according to the report by the World Meteorological Organization. Several factors contributed to the leap in CO2, including another year of unrelenting fossil fuel burning despite a pledge by the world’s countries in 2023 to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas. Another factor was an upsurge in wildfires in conditions made hotter and drier by global heating. Wildfire emissions in the Americas reached historic levels in 2024, which was the hottest year yet recorded.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/15/record-leap-in-co2-fuels-fears-of-accelerating-global-heating
Just want to second the thanks to Ovi and Dennis for their utmost dedication to this blog.
Also, I would like to thank Mike Shellman for chipping in with valuable information, even though we visit his blog for more in depth intelligence.
Mike Shellman does a great job. His forum at link below.
https://www.oilystuff.com/groups
Dan
Thanks. Much appreciated.
Dennis,
Quick check in/update on Tier 3 rock in Pennsylvania.
This is presented not so much as a ‘persuasive’ view (targeting you) as it is a justification for why so many of us are uber bullish on long term Appalachian Basin prospects …
There are 3 Seneca wells from 2011 located in the northwest fringe (Elk county) that threw off over $80,000 in August at $3/mmbtu.
A more ‘recent’ well – from 2017 – threw off almost $50,000 for August on its own.
The earliest well on the pad – no doubt the HBP well from 2010 – is still minimally producing at near zero output.
As you are forever gravitating towards ‘averages’, this 5 well pad might offer up a contrasting Real World snapshot as each of these 5 wells tells a different ‘story’ as revealed by their production numbers and contextual history.
Of greater significance, however, is that Seneca has – for now – abandoned the ongoing targeting of the Mighty Marcellus (formation for the above cited wells), and is now exclusively drilling the Utica in this region as the output is double that of the – contemporaneous – Marcellus wells.
Bottom line, the economically productive footprint of the App is INCREASING over time as best practices, familiarity, and tech advances continue apace.
Appalachia Rising!
(Aside … if you find that the number of comments per posting is declining, suggest you look into re-installing that red ‘New’ tab notice for new comments.
It has become very daunting to scroll through readers’ inputs under this new format.)
Coffeeguyzz,
There are many add ons to Word Press which are free, but they are not maintained forever. WordPress changes over time and older apps no longer work with the updates.
I have not found apps to replace the older apps. If you want to fund an update to the website, feel free to contact me at [email protected]
As to how profitable future wells might be in the Appalachian Basin, this depends on prices as well as costs.
The future is not known, perhaps you are right or not.
Comparison of Elk County average well with average Susquehanna County well in PA. Do you really believe these Elk county wells will be viable? I am skeptical.
https://public.tableau.com/shared/4FD23XTQB?:toolbar=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
Coffeeguyzzzzz offers anecdotal information.
What exactly is anecdotal information? It’s evidence based on personal stories, individual experiences, or hearsay, rather than on rigorous, systematic research.
The opposite of that is statistical research, based on a comprehensive set of information. Nothing precludes one form doing this given the data available and the computing power at hand. An example of something I’m working on, not related to oil but representative of non-anecdotal research — modeling of mean sea-level predictions at coastal sites with 100 years of data : https://climate.pukite.com
The essence is to reveal something in the collective set of data that has some universal truth, well beyond that one can infer from the potentially spurious behavior of a small set of anecdotal data points.
Fossil fuels to dominate global energy use past 2050, McKinsey says
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/energy-and-materials/our-insights/global-energy-perspective#/
Rgds
WP
Weekendpeak,
The future is not known. The IEA has different scenarios. These are chosen from an infinite set of possible future scenarios.
A new post is up at link below
https://peakoilbarrel.com/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2025/
Global oil market may be at tipping point.
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/as-oil-market-surplus-keeps-rising-something-s-got-to-give
The attacks on Russian refineries is forcing Russia to export more oil adding to the glut